![]() Moreover, as designs mature, satellites will tend to get bigger, suggesting medium and heavy launch capabilities will remain the most cost effective choice for deployment. Still, useful constellations (commercially or for government purposes) will require dozens to thousands of spacecraft. These are used for applications such as Earth observation and in-orbit demonstrations of miniaturized technologies. Even if not fully deployed, the new constellations will drive demand for services including intersatellite links, ground terminals, analytical support and, potentially, in-orbit maneuvering and debris removal.Ī key driver of satellite proliferation is lower overall costs, enabled, for example, by more capabilities in small satellites such as cubesats, built from ten-by-ten-by-ten centimeter modules, and microsats, weighing less than 100 kilograms. Direct-to-device concepts, which link satellites to cell phones, have also gained traction lately and could lead additional new entrants. In total, companies have proposed more than 100 new constellations. 6 In most cases, the maximum number of satellites has been announced or filed for the quantity may change. Looking ahead, there are plans for a significant expansion to as many as 65,000 new communication satellites and 3,000 non-communication satellites (for applications such as Earth observation). 5 Radar, McKinsey, accessed March 1, 2023. There are about 1,000 active satellites for Earth observation and 1,500 for technology development, research, and other missions. As of March 2023, there were 5,000 satellites serving communications, with the number of communications launches having grown by about 15 percent a year since 2017. Satellite use cases span a range of applications. Ramish Zafar, “SpaceX might not need 42,000 Starlink satellites for quality internet coverage says president,” Wccftech, September 14, 2022. All have been launched in the past three years. 4 Starlink is responsible for almost half of all operational satellites. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is leading the way, with its Starlink program planning to launch as many as 42,000 satellites to provide global broadband and other services. 3 Chris Daehnick, Isabelle Klinghoffer, Ben Maritz, and Bill Wiseman, “ Large LEO satellite constellations: Will it be different this time?” McKinsey, May 4, 2020. ![]() In part due to these efficiencies, companies and governments are putting thousands of new satellites into orbit. 2 Ryan Brukardt, “ How will the space economy change the world,” McKinsey Quarterly, NovemChris Daehnick, Rob Hamill, Alexandre Ménard, and Bill Wiseman, “ Is there a ‘best’ owner of satellite internet?” McKinsey, August 11, 2022. The price of heavy launches to low-Earth orbit (LEO) has fallen from $65,000 per kilogram to $1,500 per kilogram-more than a 95 percent decrease. While government (military and civil) space activity remains a significant and growing source of launch demand, the private sector is the fastest-growing segment, amid technological advances and declining costs that have spurred innovation and commercial activity. ![]() In light of these dynamics, both customers (commercial and government satellite owners) and suppliers must make tricky calculations to balance short-term opportunities against the imperative to control costs and flex to longer-term demand. In tandem with this rise in activity, the space industry is transitioning to a new generation of launch vehicles, leading to a range of possibilities in terms of availability and capacity. Forecasts for the number of constellations, and therefore required launch capabilities, thus vary widely. New companies are constantly entering the market and much uncertainty persists about their ambitions, as well as those of more established players. In the future, greater space exploration, the launch of commercial space stations, and even tourism could further increase launch needs. Governments are also expanding their satellite fleets for multiple missions. ![]() Many operate as part of multi-satellite constellations-serving commercial applications from remote sensing to communications to navigation. 1 Radar, McKinsey, accessed March 1, 2023. To serve an expanding space economy, nearly 7,500 active satellites orbit Earth and about 50 on average are taking to the skies every week.
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